The Core Question

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"How much do I need to retire?" is one of the most important financial questions you can ask — and the answer is more accessible than most people think. It depends on two things: how much you plan to spend in retirement, and how long your money needs to last.
Rather than aiming for an arbitrary number like "$1 million," understanding the underlying math lets you calculate a target that's specific to your actual life.
The 4% Rule

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The most widely used framework is the 4% rule, derived from academic research on long-term portfolio survival rates. It states that a retiree can withdraw 4% of their portfolio in the first year of retirement, adjust for inflation each subsequent year, and have a high probability of the portfolio lasting at least 30 years.
This gives you a simple formula: Required portfolio = Annual retirement expenses × 25
If you expect to spend $50,000 per year in retirement, you need approximately $1,250,000. If $80,000, then $2,000,000.
The 4% rule has critics — it's based on historical US market data and may not hold in all market environments — but it remains a useful benchmark for planning.
Estimating Retirement Spending

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Retirement spending is typically lower than working-life spending, because:
- Work-related costs disappear (commuting, clothing, lunches)
- Mortgage may be paid off
- Children are typically financially independent
- You're no longer saving for retirement
A common rule of thumb is that retirement spending is roughly 70–80% of pre-retirement spending. However, early retirement years often involve higher spending (travel, experiences), while later years may see lower discretionary spending and higher healthcare costs.
Other Income Sources

Your portfolio doesn't need to fund all retirement spending. Other income sources reduce how large a portfolio you need:
- Government pension or Social Security — a significant income floor for most retirees
- Defined benefit pension — if you have one, it covers a fixed income floor
- Rental income, part-time work, or other streams — reduce the draw on savings
Subtract guaranteed income sources from your annual spending estimate before calculating your portfolio target.